A month-and-a-half ago I postulated that UNC’s offense, not the defense, wasn’t good enough to win the National Championship. UNC has gone no more than 4 games in a row this season meeting its offensive goal of 0.95 points per possession. When UNC lost games this season, it scored 0.88 pts per possession or fewer. In those games, their defense was closer to its goal than the offense was. Therefore, it is UNC’s OFFENSE that really determines whether they win or lose.

Given that the NCAA tournament is a 6-game championship run, UNC was bound to have an "off" offensive game. That game was last night. During this tournament UNC has scored, respectively, 0.94, 1.09, 1.13, 1.01, 0.92 points per possession in each game. The sole reason the Heels were even as high as 0.92 last night was the trips to the FT line. As bad as the FT shooting was, it kept UNC on a more efficient pace than their play with a live ball.

Luckily the opponent last night only scored 0.70 points per possession. Given the pattern of scoring efficiency, UNC is due for a game above 0.95, possibly far above. For this reason, I feel UNC’s chances are extremely good of winning on Monday night, especially since UNC has not lost a game in which the offense clicked.

Michigan State would have to be extremely efficient on offense to win, so probably 3-point shooting for them is the sole means by which they have of winning. MSU shoots 26% of their shots from behind the arc.

No one shooter is stellar, though Allen, Summers, and Lucas are the ones to watch. Allen once hit 4 3’s in a game, and Summers hit 6, but these games were before Valentine’s Day. They were 8-16 from "3" against Louisville last week, and that is the only time they, as a team, have made more than 6 3-pointers in the last 18 games.

One problem for the Heels, though, is that they have not taken two steps yet. Last year, they avenged their Regional Finals collapse against Georgetown by 1 game. This year they have avenged their Final Four collapse last year by 1 game. If the team is continually recognizable on Monday night, they should win. However, they have a behavioral history of not taking the next step very well. They, themselves, are perhaps their own biggest enemies on Monday night. I like what I saw in the press conference last night, but this is why they play the game.

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