I commonly hear opponents and their fans lamenting the fact that opponents of UNC are far more likely to get fouls called on them. If this were the case, UNC should have a significantly higher FTA/Possession ratio.

UNC has always been an inside-first kind of offensive team. Given that players are more likely to be fouled when shooting in traffic, it would seem that UNC’s style of play is enough to get them to the free throw line more frequently than opponents. The best way to evaluate a team’s predilection for shooting inside vs. outside is to look at the percentage of shots taken that are behind the arc. Here are a few stats showing percentage of shots taken from “3” all season: UNC 27.7%, NCSU 33.1%, VT 31.6%.  So, UNC is clearly getting the ball inside more than this pair of opponents.

Looking at raw free throw attempt stats is intensely misleading. That stat doesn’t account for the number of games played, the speed of the games played, and several other factors. If a team that plays a fast pace attempts 20 shots in a game while a very slow-paced team got 20 free throws in a game, the slow paced team visited the line much more frequently given their fewer possessions. Consider these stats:

UNC got the ball 2,808 times and attempted 792 free throws. Their ratio is 0.282. N.C. State got the ball 2,354 times this season and attempted 615 free throws, for a ratio of 0.261. Virginia Tech got the ball 2586 times this season, and attempted 732 free throws. Their ratio is 0.283.

So yes, UNC attempted free throws more frequently than N.C. State did, but they only got there 8% more frequently (1-282/261). Given that NCSU took almost a third of their shots from “3” this season, a significantly higher proportion than UNC, it is surprising that there is only an 8% difference.

Virginia Tech’s coach Seth Greenberg believes that there is a different standard of officiating for UNC than for the rest of the league. His team got the ball 2,586 times this season and attempted 732 free throws. That’s a ratio of 0.283, which is 0.3% more frequent than UNC’s rate of trips to the line. Given that Virginia Tech jacked 3’s on 31.6% of their possessions while UNC only did so on 27.7%, it appears that Virginia Tech is more likely to be granted a free throw trip when they get the ball inside than Carolina is.

Fans and coaches get understandably emotional. Unfortunately their hearts are doing the thinking.

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