Just before the season started, the NCAA moved the 3-point line one foot farther away from the basket. The committee felt new distance, 20’9” would make the line a more equitable shot and balance the court better. Did it work?

During the regular season, ACC teams shot 34.8% from behind the arc. Problem is, they only shot  49.5% from inside of the arc, so the line is still devaluing action inside the arc. To put it differently, on possessions that ended in a 3-point shot, teams averaged scoring 1.045 points. On possessions that ended with a shot inside of the arc, teams only scored 0.989 points on average.

At this point, the “3” is still a better gamble on average than working it inside. The NCAA Rules Committee should keep moving the line back until the average points per possession inside vs. outside the arc are the same. In fact, the average outside of the arc should be up to 5% lower than inside (to promote smart possessions and off-ball movement)

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