The Tar Heels find themselves this Saturday in unfamiliar territory. With only 4 regular season games left on the schedule, the Heels have a 2 1/2 game lead over the rest of the conference. In all likelihood, UNC can clinch regular season championship with just two more wins.
This has been a strange team to watch this season. Injuries have been a problem, lack of bench production has been a problem, and defense has been a problem. With the Heels standing at 24-2 it is easy to be optimistic, however there are so many questions that linger:
With seven players carrying the PT load and five players carrying the scoring load, what impact will the return of Tyler Zeller have on this team. The rotation between Hansbrough, Thompson, and Davis was very constant, but is now quite disrupted. This can be a blessing or a curse. Before the return of Zeller, Hansbrough was best at handling the duties down low while Thompson was completely out of his league down low. Davis is the best defender of the big men, and doesn’t handle physical play very well offensively. A comfortable Zeller, which we hope to see emerge over the next couple of games, changes UNC’s frontcourt dramatically. He is a good enough player down low on both ends of the floor to completely distract opposing frontcourts, opening doors for the unstoppable version of Hansbrough and the early season version of Deon Thompson.
While Danny Green for a while was the only player to show dramatic improvement, Ty Lawson has come on strong in the mid-season. Ever since the Florida State game, which ended on a Lawson coast-to-coast, driving 3-pointer, Lawson has been a different player offensively. In the past his shooting was suspect and his penetration in the half-court set was not remarkable. Ever since he has been unstoppable with penetration. In his last five games he has averaged 2.4 made threes, up from his average of 1.5 per game.
A team is always a great threat to score well when at least three scoring threats are on the floor. As Green has cooled off a bit, Lawson and Ellington have risen to the occasion. The real question on UNC’s offense is what happens when Lawson leaves the game. Larry Drew is simply a ball carrier, and poses no scoring threat. Many times we’ve seen Frasor in with Drew, which is an awful combination. Frasor may shoot well in practice, but he is now the worst-shooting guard averaging 16 minutes a game that I have ever seen. If Frasor becomes the player he was before last season’s injury, UNC will be unstoppable and a very dominant choice to win it all.
UNC’s biggest problem is its defense. Peruse the points per possession stats for opponents and you’ll see that we have allowed more than our target 0.85 in five of our last seven games. The inability to shut down opponents may cost this team dearly in the one-and-done tournament because while UNC is a fantastic offensive team, they have only surprassed their offensive goal of 0.95 points per possession in 8 of their last 13 games. The real key to winning a championship is to reach this level of proficiency in four straight games (UNC will have a high enough seed in the tourney that the first couple of opponents won’t challenge them too toughly). Their best string since beginning conference play was only 4 games. While the ACC games are pretty tough, and UNC has a target on their chest, the ACC isn’t as tough as the teams seen after the Round of 32.
I can’t wait for today’s game. To watch the development of Zeller, and the team around him, will be fascinating over the next two or three games.
