Archive for January, 2008

Heels Face Truth

Sunday, January 20th, 2008

Many have spoken of the shortcomings of this team, however the lofty ranking made us critics sound unappreciative. The plain ol’ truth is that this is a very good team that will win all but 3 or so regular season games and finish with probably 5 losses overall, making it one of UNC’s best on paper.

In truth, though, this team still has shortcomings that the last three good opponents have exploited.

  • Interior Defense – The key to this team is it’s ability to patrol the paint. Unfortunately it is getting eaten alive there. Any decent big man looks unstoppable when facing Hansbrough/Thompson/Stepheson. This threesome is completely unable to stymie big men with shotblocking and commonly get cheap fouls called down low
  • Outside Shooting – The Heels were 30% from 3-point land yesterday and are shooting 38% on the year. As the opponents get better, the games get more physically demanding and substitutions get tighter. As we get more fatigued, the outside shot starts to wane. Ellington is shooting 41% on the season but has been inconsistent. Against Maryland he shot 2-7 from “3″ and 6-16 overall. With Green and Ginyard combining for 6-22, there is really no way the Heels deserved to be in this one. The threesome combined with Lawson for 34% group shooting. Yuck!
  • Shot Selection – The emotionally scarring loss to Georgetown last season should have taught these players that you work for good shots. We didn’t see that in the past several games, including the second half against NCSU. In the halfcourt game we aren’t seeing crisp picks being set and we are only seeing plays survive two options before falling apart. Alex Stepheson looks particularly lost in the offense. He will often set a soft pick and then seem to drift aimlessly not aware of the ball’s location. Role players are everything and we have to have them running plays well to work for easy baskets. Maryland played good defense, but we let them. We didn’t try to move them, we opted for lousy three point looks. The Heels usually take 23% of their shots from behind the arc, but opted for 29% yesterday.

To be honest, Tyler Hansbrough is making a name for himself and carrying this team simply based on his ability to play through contact. He leads the nation in trips to the FT line and has scored 153 of his 405 points (38%) from the line. That’s why he averages 21.3 points per game!


In other news, did you see Deron Washington’s dunk against GT? I nominate it as the best play of the decade in the ACC. Here is the YouTube link to it.

Heels Dismantle Pack

Sunday, January 13th, 2008

The game could be summed up by the Dean Dome crowd as NCSU finally scored its 13th point, they cheered. NCSU had missed 18 straight shot and was at the end of a 34-4 run that humiliated the visitors and made the second half an exhibition show.

Carolina played well, especially in forcing perimeter turnovers in the second half. What was more stunning, however, was how bad NCSU was in the first half. They showed no interest in rebounding and seemed to run no set plays. Possession after possession ended in a State player forcing the ball inside and forcing a guarded shot. Perhaps Coach Sidney Lowe told his team to release on shots to prevent the Carolina fast break, but it was a miserable flop. Not only did State teammates begin jogging up court when a teammate shot, they got beaten back on defense!

It’s really hard to tell if there is a coaching malfunction, chemistry problem, talent dearth, or key injury that is plaguing the Pack. Whatever it is, it’s creating the worst team in the Triangle since Dohorty’s 8-20 team. Very strange.

Enough about the Pack. The Heels continue to impress and get all of the headlines, however this team really scares me. They are clearly one of the two best teams in the ACC and will lose no more than 3 league games this season. I just wonder about their ability to survive an NCAA game against some faceless opponent with a hot shooting guard and a bully down low. The Clemson game showed that our big men really are not that big, and they don’t particularly play well against athletic 6′10"+ players.  Wayne Ellington carried the Heels against a not-so-bad Clemson team.

The problem is that the ACC is so weak, once again. While the league expanded by 25% recently, the proportion of the league that is halfway decent has plummeted to an all-time low. We know that UNC, Duke, and Clemson are tourney teams (unless Clemson does its famous disappearing act again). Are Boston College and Miami any good? They have played weak schedules and it will be interesting to watch their journey through the hapless league of mediocrity. It is likely, though, that only 4 teams will get bids this year, tying an all-time low 33% in 2000 when UNC, Maryland, and Duke were the only teams better than Meredith.

The Heels need to focus on defense, especially on the interior. Deon Thompson has to improve his weakside help, and Alex Stepheson needs to avoid cheap fouls (fouls that don’t give him any advantage but are called nevertheless). I’d like to see us generate more perimeter steals as well. The fast break is an element that is so emotionally disabling to opponents, that some perimeter steals can seal a game quickly.