Hansbrough Carrying Team

Tyler Hansbrough is a preseason All-American who actually could end up with his jersey retired at the University of North Carolina. This is scary because Hansbrough is a 6′9″ player who still hasn’t developed a consistent jump shot. He is a bull type player who probably won’t be big enough to continue this style against NBA opponents. Hansbrough leads the team in points (23.0), minutes played (29.6), rebounds (9.0), and FTA’s per game (11.6). The focus for opponents, as it should be, is shutting Hansbrough down. Expect a lot of teams to collapse zones and double teams down on Hansbrough. In the meantime, we have to get solid play out of Stepheson, Green, andThompson to keep opponents honest. In each of the last two seasons we’ve seen teams pretty much solve Hansbrough by March. We need to see the team play much better in the 11 minutes of non-Hansbrough time.

Too Big A Rotation?

The last post of last season for me was in February. I didn’t post because I didn’t need to say any more. The team had problems that were obvious that eventually did them in. One of those problems looms large; the large rotation. Currently 9 players are averaging over 10 minutes per game. Here is how they break down:

• #4 and #5 – Hansbrough/Thompson/Stepheson – This trio of 6-9 guys is the core of the Tar Heel frontcourt.
• #1 and #2 – Lawson/Ellington/Frasor/Thomas – These four usually rotate in the backcourt
• #3 – Ginyard/Green – This is where things get hairy. Ginyard is a true 3 player and is getting 27 min/game. Green is playing 19 min with key minutes down the stretch. Ginyard is a good defender a la Jackie Manuel, however Green is really a small 4 kind of player who can shoot the 3 occasionally. Neither of these two is indispensable and neither is the clear cut winner of the 3-spot. If Thompson or Stepheson come alive and start playing like 1st rate ACC big men, then expect the 6′6″ Green’s minutes at the 4 to vanish.

The problem with the rotation is that Danny Green is too short at 6′6″ to be playing the #4 role, especially with his poor ball handing and lack of speed. When Green plays the 4 role, the team is suddenly slow AND short. The solution here is getting better play out of Thompson/Stepheson and limiting the minutes for Quentin Thomas. Thomas still makes mistakes of dribbling the ball to deeply into the offense to initiate set plays and doesn’t seem to understand the geometry of the game. His minutes are key to keeping Lawson and Ellington fresh, but 11.8 mins per game is too much for such an auxiliary player.

One minute in Vegas and you think you are “money”, the next your are not. However after a night of not being able to shake off the BYU Cougars, the Heels finally were able to hit some key shots and force a few turnovers to earn their 5th win.

Ellington Shines

Coming into this season the Heels’ big question mark seemed to be its outside shooting. I reserved comment until after five games and this team is clearly different than expected. Wayne Ellington seemed to be the key entering the season and shows marked improvement. Ellington seems to have shed his Freshman jitters and is second on the team in scoring with 17.0 per game. He’s shooting 32/58 (55%) from the field and 12/25 (48%) from behind the arc. While his shooting overall has improved, hit is his composure in the Heels’ two tight situations that has given the team a big lift. His NBA “3″ last night was perhaps the most important shot of the season.

Rebounding Woes

While Reyshawn Terry won’t have his jersey in the rafters by any means, his rebounding ability is sorely missed. Rebounding, as evidenced by the total possession stat, is the one spot where Carolina is completely mortal. In the five games so far, the Heels have managed a clear advantage in possessions in only one contest. In the other four they’ve either been at a disadvantage or had no more than a 3% advantage. Tyler Hansbrough at 6′9″ is ripping down 9 rebs per game (3.3 min per rebound), so the slack has to come from somewhere else; namely Deon Thompson. The 6-8 Sophomore post player is only getting a rebound every 4.4 minutes of playing time. With over 20 minutes of playing time, the team needs more production out of Thompson.

Officiating

It’s been a while since we’ve seen an officiating crew as bad as that in the BYU game. The Danny Green “over-the-back” foul was horrendous. The worst call of the night was certainly the out of bounds call at BYU’s baseline. Even ESPN showed the BYU player’s right foot at least 10″ out of bounds during the play. There were several breaks that the Heels got, though. Many, many missed calls. In most cases these things even themselves out, however I do think that some referees are subconsciously impressed by highly ranked teams. We’ve seen several instances through the years of Mike Krzyzewski affecting the refs’ interpretation of calls. The same probably happens some when our own Hall of Famer is on the sidelines.

Lawson and The Break

While the Heels are averaging 1.08 points per possession and shooting 55% from the field, the fast break element of the game is completely missing this season. In only one game have there been more than 200 total possessions. The last two games were more like ACC conference games which usually produce 170 possessions. The engine to this break is Ty Lawson who suffered a mild right ankle sprain in the initial two minutes of the game. No word on when he’ll be back, but until he is 100%, expect to see a lot of halfcourt game.

More on Carolina’s Season So Far Tomorrow…