Carolina has three big problems that will prevent them from winning it all:

MISUSE OF DEPTH: Roy rotates 12 players, however when one has a team that doesn’t press well and doesn’t push the break well, what is the point in rotating 12 players? Games played in the halfcourt these days have so many breaks that players don’t get tired. All this backcourt rotation does is offer more fouls to give and break the rhythm of jump shooters.

POOR PENETRATION DEFENSE: Opposing guards who penetrate can easily break UNC down because the big men don’t rotate over and help very well.

NO OUTSIDE SNIPER: I’m not really talking 3’s per se, however the Tar Heels don’t have a perimeter shooter who is a part of opponents’ game plan. The Heels don’t need the second-coming of JJ Redick or even Shammond Williams. They need a Dante Calabria, Jeff Lebo, or Donald Williams who can drill teams from 3 AND reliably score from 15 feet out.

Have you seen UVA’s remaining schedule? They have a cakewalk to the regular season title. Roy isn’t interested in the ACC Tourney, so UNC won’t win that one. In the Big Dance, it is quite easy to imagine UNC losing to an opponent who sags on the big men and shoots well from outside. This Tar Heel team is incredibly difficult to beat when Reyshawn Terry is playing well. However when is the last time Terry put together 6 straight solid games?

In comparison to last year, the team basically traded Senior walk-on David Noel for Wright, Stepheson, Thompson, and Lawson. The problem is, this team doesn’t really offer more problems for opposing teams. While this team is much improved at point guard, its outside shooting is worse and this team lacks a versatile player like Noel was. The real lesson, I suppose, is that experienced mid-level talent sometimes trumps young talent.

Don’t get me wrong. I’ll still be pulling for this team, but I feel like I’ve seen this movie before.