The young Heels, as expected, have hit a rough stretch in ACC competition. However on Saturday, the Arizona Wildcats were the ticket to restoring some much needed confidence. Danny Green and Quentin Thomas played their best games to date in Chapel Hill, while Tyler Hansbrough and Bobby Frasor played solidly. While the Heels were outrebounded (as evidenced by the 6 overall possession discrepancy), they seemingly won every other statistical category. Guard play was good, especially defensively where Mustafa Shakur was the toughest guard we’ve seen on the other side of the ball.

The Arizona game will not, however, make much of an impact with the NCAA selection committee. The ACC record will be the bottom line. If the Heels earn at least an 8-8 record in the league, they will make the tournament. A 7-9 finish would have to be topped by an impressive run in the ACC Tournament to earn a bid.

The Heels are now 3-3 in conference play after having played 3 league home games. If the Heels have to go 5-5 with 5 remaining home games, it seems that the key is winning all of the home games, or stealing one away win for every home loss. The remaining teams on the home schedule are: Clemson, Duke, Ga. Tech, Maryland, and Virginia. Most likely the Heels will lose the Duke game with Maryland being the next toughest foe. That leaves them with one or two away wins to earn. With the remaining away games being at Maryland, Miami, Wake Forest, NCSU, and Duke, the Heels most likely will have to win the Wake Forest and Miami games to assure themselves of an NCAA tourney berth.

Up next is the game at #19 Maryland who is coming off of a loss at Temple (11-7). The Heels absolutely have to tighten up their perimeter defense and generate turnovers. Only two times since the Heels started playing ACC foes (eight games) have the Heels forced a team to turn it over on more than 15% of their possessions. The Arizona game is the first that the Heels have held their opponent under 0.85 points per possession in five games.

Robert Fulghum’s book, All I Really Need to Know I Learned in Kindergarten, is the ultimate K.I.S.S. (Keep It Simple Stupid) manual of life. In evaluating the Heels this season, I find the team making mistakes we constantly correct while coaching a little league team of 11 and 12-year olds. Some basic principles always apply, no matter what level is being played:

Big Men Must Keep The Ball High – when a big man gets the ball down low, he must keep the ball high. Tyler Hansbrough is doing an OK job of this when he’s not pump faking, but Byron Sanders, after four years in Chapel Hill, is not.

Always Pass with Two Hands – Quentin Thomas has been in Chapel Hill for a year, yet we still see him pass off the dribble with one hand. NO NO NO!!

Pass Accurately – Always pass to your recipient’s chest. Luckily, the typical basketball uniform is designed with a large number on the front. Therefore you hear coaches say, “Hit him in the numbers.” This is the other part of Quentin Thomas’ game that is woefully inaccurate. When the ball arrives at the chest, the recipient immediately has the ball where he needs to shot, dribble, or pass the ball on. Too many times we’ve see Tar Heel guards pass not just off the number, but completely out of the strike zone! The bounce pass is a wonderful tool which the guards are trying to utilize, but they are incredibly inaccurate. Too many times we’ve seen our big men catch these passes just above the ankles.

Bend Your Knees on Defense – Whenever playing man-to-man, it is important to play your man with your knees bent. This is gross, I know, but the proper position should be similar to hovering in a dirty, public bathroom. We have not seen this enough, especially from Danny Green, Rayshawn Terry, and David Noel. These three have a large propensity to get beaten off the dribble because of their positioning.

Zone Defenses Are Useful – We’ve only seen Coach Roy Williams utilize the 1-3-1 zone in isolated, single possession cases. There is some merit, actually, to using a zone. One, it takes less energy to play an effective zone. Second, it puts players in a position to rebound better. While it tends to give opponents open 3-point attempts, that doesn’t necessarily translate to higher shooting percentages. A zone defense down the stretch against Miami would have given the Heels a better chance to win. The game was decided with dominant offensive rebounding by Miami. When a team gets the ball 9 more times than their opponent, they don’t have to shoot that well to win. Another problem we’ve seen against ACC competition is a staggering decrease in turnovers forced by the Heels. The loss-of-ball numbers for the last three opponents have been 18%, 15%, and 11%, respectively. UNC guards are getting tired in the second half and are unable to force turnovers. Out of position from trying to play overplay man-to-man, the opponents are getting easy drives to the basket. Also, UNC is last in the ACC in defending the “3”, so the move to more zone would not hurt their ranking in this stat.

Move To and Keep Your Eye On The Ball – Pass recipients must watch the ball hit their hands and close the distance with the ball approaching. We are not seeing that from any of the Freshmen.

Free Throw Shooting Counts – The Heels have improved FT shooting recently, but as a team, on the season they are still just below 70%. While they are 5^th in the ACC in this stat, they lag in raw attempts, so more need to be made.

Move Without the Ball – We are not seeing enough of both V-cuts to get open and clean passes by the screeners. A jab step toward the lane usually will shake a defender momentarily. David Noel does this nicely, but we need to see more of it from the guards. The correct way to run past a screen is to nearly brush the screener’s shoulders. That way a defender cannot squeeze through the slot. We need to see more of this from all players involved, especially the Freshmen.

Take Easy Shots – The Heels are taking 31% of their shots from 3-point land while Duke is taking 35% of their shots from behind the arc. The difference is that Duke is making 40% of their attempts, or 1.20 points in each of these possessions. The Heels are shooting 34% from their 3’s, and are thus scoring at only a 1.02 points per possession pace from there. Duke has scored 624 points from their 543 2-point attempts, or 1.15 points in these possessions. UNC on the other hand has scored 530 points on their 509 2-point goals, or 1.04 points per possession. Therefore, because Duke is more effective when shooting 3’s than 2’s, they should keep focusing on taking 3’s at a high rate. UNC’s offense is not as efficient when shooting 3’s, so they should be more patient looking for cuts and utilizing more guard penetration.

The Heels’ bid for an NCAA berth rests on their ACC record. Conventional wisdom says that an 8-8 conference record would guarantee a return to the dance. The loss against Miami puts UNC back at par. They are 2-1 after having played two games at home and one on the road. The next 3 games are @UVA, @FSU, and Boston College. If the Heels can come out of this stretch 2-1, they will be ahead of the game. The Heels should win on Thursday in Charlottesville, but next Sunday’s game in Tallahassee will be a real litmus test for this team. Hopefully they can get back to basics this week and correct the same things we will be working on with our team at 5pm today.