Friday’s press conference at UNC brought news we all had expected and feared: the Tar Heels will lose almost all of the effective parts that brought on this National Championship. It’s been well-publicized, but let’s review the numbers again. UNC will lose 92.5% of its scoring, 81% of its rebounding, 83.8% of its assists, 81.8% of its steals, and 85.9% of its blocked shots. For all intents and purposes UNC will have a completely clean slate next season.

Personally I wish all seven of the departing players the best of luck and thank them for all the hard work they put into right a ship that had hit rock bottom after a multi year slide. I cannot blame them for taking such a lucrative job while they can. However, as Joe Sports Fan, it is disappointing that continuity and excellence are mutually exclusive these days. One of the things I love about college basketball is the cultivation of the players and quarter-team reloading that freshens things up a bit every year. It’s fun to move and to redecorate but not fun to recover from a burn-the-house-down fire just as soon as the thing was finished (anyone in Raleigh should remember the 21,000 square foot house that burned down just after completion a few years ago. That family quit and never moved to Raleigh).

I don’t think it is correct to admonish Joe Sports Fan as “selfish”, though. JSF is the very reason that men’s college basketball is not where men’s college soccer is. Basketball is the entertainment choice of the fan and that is the reason, the ONLY reason, that the men’s team outgrew two facilities in half of a century. The soccer team recruits, gives scholarships, practices, travels, and all that good stuff. However the paltry attendance at games keeps these players on campus for four years in secondary facilities. Without JSF these players wouldn’t have the exposure to go make 150X what JSF makes. So lay off of Joe Sports Fan. Without him we’d probable still be in Woolen.

The key to medium-term success is next year’s recruiting class. Obviously Williams needs to go after the best point guard in America who doesn’t have his eyes primed on the NBA. William Graves has already committed and is a top-100, 6-6 player out of Greensboro. UNC has also offered scholarships to the players ranked #2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10, 11, 16, 17, 21, 24, and 40. Three are point guards: #7 DJ Augustin (5-11, New Orleans), #17 Mike Conley (6-2, Indianapolis), and #24 Tywon Lawson (6-0, Oak Hill). This will be a busy Summer and Fall for Roy Williams, but things look pretty rosey for the ‘06-’07 season and beyond if things keep going like they have been.

Probably the best way to follow all of this is through the ACC Sports Journal. That is where you’ll find info from insider moles at each program as well as Brick Oettinger’s amazingly comprehensive recruiting wrap up.

P.S. – I have been extremely busy preparing for a move and havne’t gotten to break down the National Championship film. This will be a project for me in the next month, however, so stay tuned!

http://media.ebaumsworld.com/sportsnews.wmv

You absolutely HAVE to watch this hilarious video of a young, budding sportscaster falling on his face. Look out for BGTD in the middle. To top it off, watch his ,”yeah!” at the very end. (More on the Heels later – it’s been a very busy week)

It just hasn’t sunk in yet. I hardly even know what to write about. Felton’s steal? Felton’s “3″?, Roy Williams? Sean May? Teamwork? The long road from 8-20? I’ll write about it all.

When I go back to the great Championship night in 1993, I remember being so excited that I was able to be in school for a National Championship. I was so jealous of the people in ‘82 and the State students in ‘83, but I finally got my championship. Not to be too corny, but as good as it felt, I would have traded it all to be a dentist with an awesome wife, so I was ecstatic to watch the game at home with my beautiful wife and little girl.

Because we have a DVR, I was able to listen to Woody and Mick, watch CBS’ and WRAL’s coverage, and watch ESPN’s coverage. It took about 2 hours to digest it all after the game, and I am paying now! I was so tired today that I put my nightly deposit in the mail box. ouch!

The thing about the game that struck me was Illinois’ heavy reliance on the “3″. They shot FORTY from out there! That’s 57% of their possessions that ended in a 3-point attempt. The previous high proportionally for an opponent was @NCSU who took 27/53 shots from out there. It was amazing to watch this impressive, season-long #1 dissolve into a 1-dimensional threat. Had it not been for the allowance of several moving screens, this one wouldn’t have even been close; and Carolina didn’t even have an “A” game!

I’ll be writing more and rewatching the game as the week progresses. It’s hard to even contain my thoughts right now!

Let’s all give a round of applause for Myles Brand, the AD at Indiana University who fired Bobby Knight. Why? If not for Knight’s departure, Sean May would not have come to UNC. May hurt his knee 1/3 the way through his Freshman season. That season nose-dived without May, contributing to the dismissal of Matt Doherty. Enter Roy Williams from Kansas. The Kansas job was filled by Bill Self, opening the job at Illinois for Bruce Weber…and here we are, at the game of the year. Good luck Heels and thanks Mr. Brand!

The day arrives. The day all Carolina fans wondered would ever come after the five longest years in the program’s history. The day on which so much change can occur. The day that could be the toughest in a while.

Michigan State stands as a tough foe ahead. While they lack a true point guard, they have many players who are all similarly sized. Their m.o. against Duke was to switch on every screen. Normally that results in defensive mismatches that break down. Not with Michigan State. When you trade off a 6-6 player for another 6-6 player there isn’t much advantage gained.

Looking at their stats, Michigan State is just as efficient and just as accurate as the Heels. They take care of the ball better, however they play slower, allow better shooting defensively, get to the line less, and shoot 3’s not quite as well as UNC.

From my quick observations last week, it looked like Michigan State’s point guard play is exclusively right-handed. It will be absolutely imperative for Raymond Felton to force the point guard play to the left side of the court into the PG’s weak hand. Michigan State takes far fewer free throws per game, and they take 33% of their shots from three point land (UNC takes 30.5%). So, the key will be stopping their perimeter play. Not only should we force the weak hand at point guard, we have to get out on the wings and deny players who are one pass away from the ball. Overplay is key because if wings aren’t there, it forces Michigan State to put the ball on the floor and drive to the basket, something they aren’t used to doing.

While Michigan State is a worthy foe, UNC’s biggest enemy is within. Can this UNC team handle the bright lights and pressure unlike so many of the UNC teams in the last 15 years. Will we see another Final Four where our 2-guard shoots 1-13 or our power forward repeatedly misses from 4 feet away? Will we see a 33%-shooting opponent handle the Heels fairly easily? Will we see another opponent get out to a 15-1 early score? The key is mental toughness.

Throughout their careers Jawad, Rashad, and Raymond have buckled under pressure. This season the @WFU, @DUK, and GT ACC tourney games come to mind. The pitiful performance against Villanova occurred with even brighter lights. UNC couldn’t stop Wisconsin for key parts of that game. Then there was Rashad McCants who came up big defensively. Then there was Felton who hit key free throws. Perhaps this team is over the hump. Perhaps those wins last weekend gave them the long-awaited true confidence these players have so desperately needed. Confidence that used to come by putting on the North Carolina jersey. Perhaps that could be the greatest gift these players could leave players in the near future. Confidence. It comes from mental toughness. Confidence.

MSU UNC

A/TP 1.25 1.19
PPP 0.98 0.99
%LOB 17.1 18.1
FT% .777 .730
3PFG% .358 .397
FG% .494 .502
FTA/GM 21.3 27.5
POSS/GM 80.1 89.7
POSS DIFF/GM 2.87 2.10
(Against)
PPPA 0.84 0.81
%LOBA 19.4 20.5

There been a lot of talk about Carolina’s defense, maybe a little too much talk.

Carolina has generally not had problems scoring since Roy Williams took the helm, however he has made his friggin’ frustrations known about their ability to play defense. This season the team showed much improvement, however we saw some serious lapses recently. More specifically the team collapsed in the final 2:45 of the first half against Wisconsin. Up 44-33, the Heels hit a defensive lull and found themselves in the locker room with a tie game on their hands.

Some like to speculate that the zone defense caused this. They’re right, but not for the right reasons. Raymond Felton went to the bench a little over midway through the 2^nd quarter of the game with foul trouble. The Heels then switched to a 2-3/1-3-1 looking zone defense and actually increased their lead while in the zone. Big problems began, however, when they reverted to man-to-man defense with about 2:45 remaining. During that 2:45 nobody got out on the wings to deny the 1^st pass away, and nobody moved their feet to stop dribble penetration. So it isn’t that the zone per se is the problem, it is the motivation to play aggressive defense after the zone is employed. Thank goodness the 1^st half mercifully ended.

Why was a zone the proper response to Felton’s benching, anyway? It seems that a zone might be a good move with the foul-plagued player on the floor, but with him on the bench, the Heels should have increased pressure more. That would have surprised the opponent and sustained defensive intensity until halftime. This team has found itself going to sleep defensively in the last 5:00 of the first half frequently as of late. Roy Williams has to find a way to keep his players motivated as the half ends. Trapping more frequently would do this.

“St. Louis?”
“No! Navin Johnson.” – The Jerk