“Mental toughness”. “Knowing how to win”. “Outsmarting your opponent”. These are phrases often used to describe victors. They have rarely been used in Chapel Hill in recent years, and it still isn’t quite time to start using them. Carolina and Wake started the final year of the ACC with one of the league’s finest regular season games ever. Like two boxers staggering around to the bitter end, Wake and Carolina pushed each other in a match of wills. Ultimately it was Carolina’s repeated habit of giving its opponent new life that pushed Wake over the edge.UNC and Wake played very clean basketball. Both teams turned the ball over on fewer than 14% of their possessions, shot at least 49% from the field, and scored at least 0.97 points per possession. Ultimately it was a few key plays that gave Wake a chance to pull it out. With just 1.2 seconds remaining in the first overtime Carolina had the game in the bag until Melvin Scott inanely fouled Chris Paul, the desperate 3-point shooter. Again in the second overtime, UNC got the ball with about 12 seconds on the clock and a chance to win the game, but Scott’s lackadaisical trot upcourt with the ball only left enough time for a guarded 22 footer. In the third overtime, a fatigued UNC abandoned high percentage 2-point baskets in favor of the more difficult 3-pointer. And that was it.

UNC should have won the game in regulation, however there was no answer for Wake Forest’s big men. UNC continued its soft interior defense. It seemed that Wake scored at will from the paint.

The game had a total of 29 missed free throws. Most of those would have decided the outcome of the game.

UNC’s erratic schedule puts them with ANOTHER week off. This will be the third straight week with no mid-week games. The team went their own ways today and will reconvene in Myrtle Beach Friday. Hopefully the two days of practice will allow David Noel to hone his feeling for real scoring opportunities. His defense was outstanding.

Too bad that Wake and UNC will not play each other in a home-and-home anymore. Oh yeah, this new league next year will be MUCH better without those two teams playing so much. I really can’t wait to see more games with Virginia Tech and Miami instead of natural rivals Wake Forest. Way to go John $wofford.

The game was outstanding, for sure, but the recent Stanley Cup Finals Game 2 between the Carolina Hurricanes and Detroit Red Wings was even more grueling. The UNC/Wake game was 55 minutes long, or 138% of regulation time. The third longest Stanley Cup Finals game ever clocked in at 114 minutes played, or 191% of regulation play. Carolina and Wake would have had to play 7.3 overtime periods to match the extra play length in the hockey game that finally ended at 1:00am. More on the game is posted at:
http://www.caneshockey.com/gameday/recap.asp?recapid=153

AROUND THE LEAGUE

Duke’s JJ Redick is heating up, and so are the Devils. Redick was 4-6 from 3. The team was 31-54 (57%) from the field against a top-10 Texas team. 6 players were in double figures, even Sean Dockery. Impressive. They needed a boost.

Herb Sendek is a mediocre coach. His entire tenure at NCSU has been during the weakest stretch of ACC play. That stretch contained several years in which the ACC only had 3 NCAA tournament teams. Now that the ACC is back to being clearly the best league, NCSU will putter along at its pace and find itself in 6th or 7th place. I would like to know what NCSU’s road record is under Sendek. It’s bound to be less than .400.

Georgia Tech will be tough, but they will fade a bit as the regular season progresses. Maryland looks better than advertised.

If there is one thing you can always count on with freshmen, it is that you can never count on freshmen. The Heels’ meteoric return to the national spotlight has been a breath of fresh air, for sure. The Tar Heels opened with an impressive run in the Preseason NIT, and played well in losses to very good Kentucky and Illinois teams. With this team’s early success, it is easy to say that the infusion of good and great freshmen to replace the outgoing leftovers from the Guthridge era has been exciting to say the least.

This team is more aggressive than any in recent years, plays better defense than any since 1993, and has been able to overcome its Achilles Heel, a short interior, as well as any team in the nation could. With the Heels at 5-2, it leads us to the question, “what now?”

For one, don’t expect these young Heels to click every night. Freshmen are almost never consistent. On one night a player will find himself scoring in the twenties and hitting everything in sight, the next night he is a turnover machine. Regardless of the great start, I’d still take a .500 record into March. The ACC appears to be a far tougher league this year than previously thought.

What may eventually take its toll on this team is fatigue. Matt Doherty’s plan is to play aggressive perimeter defense and create many fast break situations. Should the primary break not work, the offensive “set” relies on a high post and multiple athletic moves to the basket. While this team is as athletically suited for this as any we’ve seen at UNC, the team is not deep. Therefore the athletic quickness will wane in the second half. When fatigue sets in, shooting percentages decrease, and with no true big man down low, offensive rebounding will be scarce.

What would really improve Doherty’s offensive set is an abundance of screening. So far in the first games, and for most of last season, the offense has shown no intent to open teammates by screening. It doesn’t appear that the players are selfish and unwilling to set these picks, it looks as though the coaching staff has not emphasized the concept. Screens require good on-court communication, however when they are combined with fantastic athletic ability, they will break down any defense and save the players’ energy levels.

Defensively this team is very impressive. Sean May has a great knack for shot blocking and does a good job of keeping his man in front of him. He needs to stop trying to draw charges, though, because it’s just making him look dumb. Raymond Felton is the best on-the-ball defender since Derrick Phelps was a Heel. While Rashad McCants has shown some flashes of offensive brilliance, his defensive work needs some improvement, but that will come. Perhaps the Heel in need of the most defensive work is Jawad Williams. Williams is unfortunately poor at defending a taller opponent. Williams needs to front his man and keep his feet moving, never giving the man space. Jawad is the same size as former Heel George Lynch, but is WAY behind Lynch on toughness and quickness.

The two players that are complete question marks are Sophomores Jackie Manuel and Melvin Scott. Manuel has been outstanding on defense and has gone to the basket aggressively. He unfortunately possesses an atrocious jump shot. Conversely Melvin Scott can shoot pretty well, and would improve that shot with more playing time, however he is a defensive liability. The one of these two players who improves his weakness sooner will bench the other for good.

Damien Grant is another interesting piece of this puzzle. The huge 6-11 Grant could be an outstanding interior presence, but is unlikely to see much action this season. If Grant could give this team about 8-10 minutes, the Heels would be a decent force in March.

What will happen with these Heels? We’ll see. In this, the 50th season, the ACC will be a wild one. While Carolina’s deck is full of wild cards, other teams of the league have more. The only sure bet is that Clemson will be at the bottom. The rest of us? Who knows? Hopefully the Heels will continue to improve, especially on their second trip through the ACC. Hopefully the team and its fans will understand that this season will be full of plenty of unexpected surprises. Let’s just hope those come with W’s and L’, not transfers and turmoil. I’ll still take that .500 season.

UNC came off of a 7-day exam lay-off with a pathetic 30% shooting display en route to a 64-53 win over an outmanned Akron team. UNC scored 0.68 points per possession, their worst showing since the 40 point blowout by Maryland last season. UNC has another long layoff this week with no games before Saturday’s showdown with Wake Forest.Akron’s first points didn’t come until 8:37 into the game. Unfortunately the Heels has only mustered six points themselves. Akron taught us all that clearly the best way to stop UNC is to get back on defense and play a 2-3 zone. It wasn’t until Raymond Felton’s default “3” well into the first half that the Heels really showed any sort of control in the game.

Felton’s unwillingness to create an open jump shot is well-documented here, but there were plenty of other mistakes by the Heels today; many of them by a very lazy Sean May. Until May begins to play the game above the rim, he stands no chance at a successful pro career. May had several power moves to the basket, however instead of dunking, May opted to put up the easily-blocked soft layup. Today that shot was totally ineffective and only because of his offensive rebounding did he minimize the damage. May, on several occasions, failed to box out opponents and sulked his way upcourt after several of his 15 missed shots.

Rashad McCants was in la-la land as well. McCants fell asleep several times on defense, and was too lazy to get his feet and weight set for jumpers and free throws. Reyshawn Terry played 5 “terry”ble minutes where he was completely out of position on offense and forced shots. Jackie Manuel was unhelpful on offense, and Melvin Scott’s shot was way off. McCants, May, and Scott combined for 8-41 (20%) shooting for the game.

As stated, the Heels have to improve in the halfcourt set. It is important for May to be more aggressive to the rim, and not to bring the ball down to the floor (SURELY some coach along the way has pushed this point with him?). UNC’s defense was hard to judge today due to the ineptitude of Akron. Their 38% field goal shooting had little to do with Carolina’s defense.

Next up is Wake Forest, a team with an absolute low post monster, Eric Williams. Sean May needs to run, run, and run this week. Melvin Scott and Rashad McCants have to find their shots, otherwise it will be a long, long game against the savvy Deacs.

Today’s game against George Mason ranks as one of the Heels’ strangest games in a long time. Down by two at the half, the Heels shot 65% and outscored GMU 68-32 in the second half. It was a big game for Raymond Felton who set a school record with 18 assists. Sean May lead all scoring with 26.In the first half UNC found itself down by as many as nine points. GMU did a fantastic job of spreading the floor and utilizing a combination of available interior space with good outside shooting. UNC played well in the first half, GMU just play that much better.

The second half was a totally different story. UNC played a little better, but GMU unwound. Their shot selection and defense were terrible in the first 5 minutes. Then they went cold from the outside. GMU is a good team, and it just goes to show that if you give this UNC a 5-minute window, they can really open things up.

I hope you got a chance to listen to the post game commentary on the radio network. Roy Williams did his best to talk down his team, which is certainly prudent. Let’s face it, the team has a lot to work on. Too many players are one-dimensional and too many players aren’t running plays correctly. However, this team is doing a lot right. Williams basically said that anyone who refers to his team and the “Final Four” in the same sentence is crazy, mainly because of depth problems.

Are there depth problems? Certainly the weakest area is with the big men. When Sean May leaves the game, the Heels feature Jawad Williams and walk-on freshman Justin Bohlander. Yes. That is a weak front line, but add David Noel and that isn’t a bad rotation, especially if May can give 28 healthy minutes per game.

UNC has no problems at the 2 and 3 positions. The other focus is on the PG play. Raymond Felton is special, for sure. However Melvin Watkins’ ballhandling has come a LONG way in the last year.

“We’re just one injury away from being a mediocre team.” Imagine if Ed Cota, Jeff McInnis, or Derrick Phelps had gone down. There is no way the ’93, ’95,’ 97’, 98’, ’00 teams would have made the final four without these guards. Equally, George Lynch and Antawn Jamison were valuable big men, much as Sean May is. While those teams wouldn’t have gone 8-18, a Roy Williams-coached team minus a wheel would not be an embarrassment either.

Phil Ford’s post-game commentary was outstanding. He said he is excited to see this team executing so well at this point in the season. He praised the coaching staff’s ability to present plays that have viable breakdown options and to teach the players the correct angles for running routes and screening. These nuances are relating to shots that “these guys can make.” It was a classy comparison. I assume he feels that the Doherty playbook wasn’t offering the team a chance to excel, and that the players were not being taught things to set players up to score well. Interesting.

The Heels have a long week off before facing Akron. They’ll then have another 6 days before facing Wake Forest. Let’s hope they don’t get rusty!

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Nice job, BCS. The system, which was to “guarantee #1 vs. #2”, has put #2 vs. #3. Now the #1 team in the land, USC, is somehow not in the National Championship?…and WHY do we continue to watch football???

The ACC has decided to expand for the “good of the future of the conference.” The theory is that with the ACC’s inclusion of several good football programs, it will have more football bowl game exposure, and revenues per school will rise. If expansion is good for the existing 9 schools, then it must have been good for the 8 schools to add Florida State, a top-flight program, back in 1990, right?

Upon evaluating the success of an individual team or a league, one must develop criteria for success. In other words, what is it that makes successful teams “successful.” Is it the number of wins? Is it the number of bowl appearances? Is it the number of wins against quality competition? Is it the number of tickets sold in a year? Does the size of the home stadium matter?

In my humble opinion, the most reliable measure of a program’s or a league’s success lies in its ability to finish in the top 20
of the final national rankings. Everything else takes care of itself if that one measure is reached. Ticket sales and donations for new facilities flourish. Television appearances and bowl-game invitations increase. The reputations of the coaches and their NFL prospects increase with top-20 finishes. Because all of this adds up to the success level of a program, it is fair to use top-20 finishes as a reliable single measure of “success.”

Given that top 20 finishes are a good measure of success, wouldn’t it stand to reason that a larger proportion of a league finishing in the top-20 relates to an league that is improving overall? Conversely, wouldn’t a declining proportion of a league in the top-20 signify a weakening league?

Percentage of the ACC Finishing in the Top 20 Final AP Poll
			Include	Last5	Exclude	Last5
			FSU	Year Avg	FSU	Year Avg
		1973	29%	11%	29%	11%
		1974	14%	14%	14%	14%
		1975	14%	17%	14%	17%
		1976	14%	20%	14%	20%
		1977	29%	20%	29%	20%
		1978	43%	23%	43%	23%
		1979	14%	23%	14%	23%
		1980	14%	23%	14%	23%
		1982	38%	27%	38%	27%
		1983	13%	21%	13%	21%
		1984	25%	23%	25%	23%
		1985	25%	25%	25%	25%
		1986	13%	23%	13%	23%
		1987	13%	18%	13%	18%
		1988	13%	18%	13%	18%
		1989	25%	18%	25%	18%
		1990	25%	18%	25%	18%
		1991	13%	18%	13%	18%
		1993	22%	24%	13%	20%
		1994	33%	25%	25%	20%
		1995	22%	25%	13%	18%
		1996	22%	27%	13%	18%
		1997	22%	24%	13%	15%
		1998	33%	27%	25%	18%
		1999	22%	24%	13%	15%
		2000	33%	27%	25%	18%
		2001	22%	27%	13%	18%
		2002	11%	24%	13%	18%
19-year average (pre-FSU ‘73-’91)			21%		21%
		2003	22%	22%	25%	18%

If we analyze ACC football over the last 30 seasons, we see some startling trends. The accompanying table shows that the percentage of the ACC that finished in the top 20 Final AP Poll over the last 30 years has been 22%. The 5-year performance has reliably risen above 20% Naturally, the addition of a perennial top-20 program, Florida State, has lifted the ACC’s top 20 appearances over the last 11 seasons. But does that mean that the old 8 teams are doing better as a result of Florida State’s inclusion?

The second column shows the proportion of top-20 finishes by the other 8 schools (as official members) over that same 30-year period. What we see here is the real effect that Florida State has had on the 8 schools it joined. While the ACC usually placed 21% of its teams in the top-20 before adding FSU, only 17% of the league is finishing well now; and those numbers are falling. It is likely that none of the original 8 teams will finish in the top 20 this season, ending the worst 5-year performance by the original ACC members in the modern era.

Of course there is the issue of BCS bowl money and the ACC’s future in that pile with an aging Bobby Bowden at FSU. The ACC shares its bowl proceeds evenly, so shares of the big $12M payouts certainly improve the bottom line at many schools. But is that what the essence of football is, really? Call me old fashioned, but the essence of a game is the competition on the field, not the amount of money generated. And, as proposed before, top 20 finishes will take care of revenues.

How will the addition of Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College affect the ACC? Certainly 2 of those teams will be in the hunt for the top-20 every year, so maybe the FSU-era average of 2.3 teams that finish in the top 20 will rise to, say, 4 on a consistent basis. That would make the proportion rise to 33%, but one must consider that the original 8 teams will not have quite as many wins against this bunch, so that current average of 2.3 will fall, somewhat. Most likely what will happen is the ACC’s top 20 finishers will total about 3 per year, or 25%, a slight rise over the current 22%.

As for the original 8? It doesn’t look that good. If 3 teams will make the top-20 every year, most likely two of them are going to be Miami and Florida State. Threrefore we’ll usually see one, maybe the occasional two, other teams making the top 20. With Virginia Tech or Boston College being in the hunt, it will be extremely rare for more than 1 of the original 8 (13%) to finish in the top 20.

Per school revenues in the new ACC are a totally different story, and not the focus of this article. Rather, the success on the field, best represented by top-20 finishes, will become more elusive to Clemson, Duke, Georgia Tech, Maryland, North Carolina, NC State, Virginia, and Wake Forest. Expansion will undoubtedly hurt the level of success of these fine, long-standing ACC programs.

UNC showed much maturity for the second game in a row in downing a good, well coached Illinois team 88-81. Free throws were the difference, as Sean May, of all people, drained 9-10 shots from the line. Also huge was the defensive intensity from Raymond Felton, who with help from Manuel and Scott, were able to shut the lighting quick Dee Brown to just 3-17 from the field.This Tar Heel team is showing one glaring improvement over last season; mental toughness down the stretch. When tested by both Cleveland State and Illinois, shot selection remained good and free throw shooting actually seemed to improve. As Steve Lavin mentioned in the NCSU/Michigan game, 67% of all points scored in the final two minutes by the winning team come from the free throw line. He also said that 25% of all points scored come from the charity stripe. After two games of good shooting from the line, the Heels just may start to have the confidence that it takes to shoot in the 70s as a team.

I’ll be the first to admit that Jawad Williams has become the rock of Gibraltar for the Heels. Never a quick player, Williams seems to have gotten that knack for being at the right place at the right time. His rebounding has improved along with his shot selection. We’re also starting to see Jawad, along with other members of the team, diving for loose balls and giving a little extra hustle. No doubt this is an indication that the team is starting to buy into their new coach’s system.

Jackie Manuel is a remarkable athlete with guts. Far and away, though, his weakness is his shooting. Notice as he shoots, his left elbow flies outward. Until this is remedied (and it isn’t too late), he’ll always be a mediocre jump shooter.

The Heels still are suffering from 4:00 lapses. Last night’s lapses tended to come on the defensive end. Several times there were cuts made for easy baskets. The remedy for this is for the picker’s man to COMMUNICATE the switch to his teammate. This isn’t happening and it really needs to.

Commisioner John Swofford was interviewed courtside during the Carolina game and it seemed he’d never shut up. Swofford must have rambled for 5 non-sensical minutes about how expansion will “help all parties involved” (except for those teams that made the conference what it is – the original 7)

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Around the League

Duke lost McDonald’s All-American Michael Thompson this week to transfer. While Duke now has 6 McDonald’s All-Americans on its roster, further study reveals their woefully thin bench. The starters for Duke include Duhon (McD), Ewing (McD), Redick (McD), Deng (McD), and Sheldon Williams. This bunch isn’t clicking, but that’s the focus of another article.

Duke’s bench includes 3 players who will get any significant playing time. One is Shavlik Randolph (McD). Randolph added 30 lbs this summer while recovering from hip surgery (while Sean May lost 30 lbs). Now he’s slower than ever, and can’t jump. Add that to his slowly reactive defense and you have a player who is just an average ACC talent. Sean Dockery (McD), the sophomore guard, has yet to score this season in 11.2 minutes per game. Then there is Senior Nick Horvath, a large body with marginal talent. Horvath is only seeing 3.8 minutes per game, behind Lee Melchionni.

The Duke team is a mess. Perhaps they should look to improving their defense to improve their unfocused offense.

Wake Forest and Georgia Tech look like the two best teams in the league. While GT has a great backcourt, Wake is enjoying a frontcourt featuring the monstrous Eric Williams (McD). Carolina gets Wake early (Dec 20) and it should be the Heels’ first loss.

NCSU is going to be a #6-type of ACC team this year and will marginally be in the hunt for an NCAA berth. Herb Sendek’s Princeton-like offense (which pulls the defense 20 feet away from the basket) is a good one for a short team, but they still rely too much on streaky outside shooting to get the job done.

Maryland will also be a mid-level team this year, but they do fight until the buzzer. Nick Caner-Medley (what are his childeren going to be named) is certainly their center of inspiration.

Virginia and Florida State will be wildcards. Odds are that UVA will finish 8th and it will be popular coach Pete Gillen’s last season.

Oh ,and then there is Clemson. Are they still in the ACC?