At halftime of the Davidson game I looked at my friend and just laughed. “This team is really bad!” Their play to that point was so bad and ineffective that it was beyond anger. Yes, the Heels are bad, and it certainly hasn’t gone unnoticed. Just tonight Charles Barkley ragged on Kenny Smith and Jerry Stackhouse during the halftime show on TNT’s broadcast. The local papers, including the Daily Tar Heel, did stop short of tar and feathering Matt Doherty. The perplexing ineptitude has people talking, and yours truly will sort it out just for you.

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Why are these Heels so bad? After all, there are four McDonald’s All-Americans on this team. You’d think one could roll the ball out on the court and beat the likes of Davidson. Is it the coaching, the leadership, the talent level? Well, it’s actually all of the above…and more.

Senior Play

One need not look much further than the play of Kris Lang and Jason Capel to start with. Lang and Capel, two seasoned veterans, are this team’s Senior leaders, and are expected to lead the team in point production as well. Unfortunately neither has been able to throw the ball in the ocean.

Capel entered UNC as sort of a do-it-all-Rick-Fox type of player and has had bright moments throughout his first three years in Chapel Hill. With all of that leading up to a Senior season one would expect Capel to really excel this season, right? That’s the problem.

Capel needs to be a  positive on-the-floor spiritual leader and let the game come to him. He is doing neither. In the first two games he has forced shots and been too unwilling to pass to Freshmen. The AP’s Grant Halverson captured Capel’s first two games perfectly. Pictured is Capel forcing a putback against three opponents. The smart Capel we saw in high school would have passed the ball over to Lang or a wide open guard on the perimeter. The current Capel feels so compelled to score 20 points per game that his brain is melting down.

Capel needs to play and let the opportunities come to him. As soon as the other perimeter players play well, defenses won’t pound Capel and opportunities will open like the red sea. When those do open, it would be nice if Capel could get more rim-hungry and take some people all the way to the hole instead of fading away.

Kris Lang basically has one offensive move, the baby hook. Lang is one of Carolina’s slowest big men in recent memory, but that doesn’t mean he can’t be the next Pete Chilcutt. Chilcutt was about the same size, but could score facing the basket. Lang also needs to chase a few chickens around the yard a la “Rocky”. He isn’t willing to bend his knees enough when receiving passes and therefore cannot collect a sloppy pass. Like Capel Lang also needs to be more aggressive to the rim. He isn’t a great leaper, but it would be nice to see him really go hard to hole and draw the foul sometime.

Freshman Inexperience

Beyond Lang and Capel the Heels are a very young team. With no other real experience returning, much pressure lies on the freshmen; Jackie Manuel, Melvin Scott, and Jawad Williams. This group is one of the Heels’ bright spots. The gangly Manuel and Scott have impressive quickness, and with some coaching will be good defenders. All three don’t have a feel for what to do on offense without the ball, so the coaches have some work to do. Melvin Scott showed us lightning quickness and a decent shot against Davidson. Hopefully Williams talents will surface against Indiana. By the end of the season, look for these three, especially Scott and Williams to be major contributors.

Poor Shooting

Bad shooting is like a disease, and Heels have come down with a bad case. Against Hampton the Heels were 26-67 (39%). In that game Hampton presented a packed-in 2-3 zone and dared the Heels to shoot 3’s. 34 3-point attempts (over half of the FGAs!) later we found that the Heels couldn’t identify a smart shot if it bit them on the leg. Going into the Davidson game, we figured the coaches had worked on this, and they had. Ironically shot selection was much better, but the overall result was worse as they shot 18-60 (30%). 20 of those shots were from 3-point land, so we got somewhere in just 3 days. Shooting will improve as players move better without the ball and mature. Look for the Heels to shoot at least 40% against Indiana.

Poor Off-ball Movement

Several times during the first two games we saw players without the ball standing for over 10 seconds and watching the game. Certainly more film review and coaching will fix this problem. More screens were set against Davidson, and more open shots inside the arc were earned. As the heels move more and get a more consistent lineup we’ll see more shot attempts close to the goal and a rise in shooting percentage.

Poor Ball-handling

This team dribbles too much. Once more motion occurs, passes will be easier to make and will keep players from dribbling into double teams. The worst offender is Brian Morrison. In only 9 minutes of play Tuesday he turned the ball over a team-leading 5 times.

Poor Sophomore Play

Speaking of Brian Morrison, the biggest disappointment with this team is the play of Sophomores Brian Morrison and Adam Boone. Morrison is simply horrible. He is a poor shooter, a bad defender, and a really, really, really bad ball handler. Its time to reevaluate the amount of playing time Morrison is earning.

Adam Boone is an intelligent person. This unfortunately doesn’t seem to find its way on the court. “Terrible” doesn’t even begin to describe Boone’s defensive play. I lost count of the times that Boone lost his man on defense just before the player scored a basket. Boone has been playing point guard when in the game, and has only 1 steal in 54 minutes of play. Offensively Boone is simply OK. In those 54 minutes (third on the team in playing time) he has made 7 assists and 3 turnovers. Those are good numbers…for one game. When Boone has the ball he is simply a conveyor belt on the perimeter and poses no scoring threat with only 6 FGAs in those 54 minutes. Boone needs to be an offensive catylst and play good defense. Otherwise the Heels would be FAR better off playing Jonathan Holmes who is a good distributor at point guard.

Excessive Substitution

It is understandable for the coach to yank players who make blatant mistakes, however when a team is a bad as this one currently is, the game can become a carousel. That’s what happened in the first half against Davidson. 11 players played 8 or more minutes in that game. To have any continuity a team needs to have only 8 players exceeding 8 minutes. In the second half of the Davidson game, we saw far fewer subs resulting in more playmaking and continuity. The scoring didn’t reflect the improvement in this game, but it will in other games. With a main core of players, there begins to be a “sixth sense” on the court where guys just know where each other are. Tuesday night almost looked like an audition for the whole team. Maybe the coaches wanted more game film of each player. They certainly got it.

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What’s good? While this team really doesn’t do anything well to this point, there are some bright spots.

Defensive Play

The Heels’ defensive play has not been stellar, but it has actually been not bad. They held both of their opponents to 39% shooting which will give any team a chance to win. Overall they met the sub .85 points per possession goal in both games (Hampton 0.85, Davidson 0.77 ppg) and forced 23 percent loss of ball from Davidson, all while playing mostly man-to-man defense.

Rebounding

For its size Carolina is a good rebounding team. They had one fewer possession than Hampton and had 12 more possessions than Davidson. Raw rebounding differentials were +1 and +7, respectively. While both opponents matched up in size fairly evenly, we can deduce that the Heels are playing with a lot of effort, and their defense is adequate enough to give them a chance to win, so far.

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Ways To Improve… This team will improve quite a bit by January 1, mark my word. With more hours logged in practice and games by the freshmen, we will see a much more mature, cohesive team. They have a long way to go, but they can get to be an OK, or even “good”, team.

Watch Game Video

Perhaps the biggest source of improvement will be the mirror. Watching one’s self is one of the best ways to improve. Honestly the coaches need to spend more time in film review than in shooting practice. As soon as players realize that their spacing and off-ball movement stinks, they will open up easier shots.

Push Defense and Fast Breaks

With the defense already being the team’s so-called “strength”, the Heels should be off to the races every time they get the ball back. There is plenty of speed to keep defenses from setting up. With the Heels’ backcourt depth, fatigue shouldn’t be a concern.

Penetrate Zones

Any opposing coach with a brain will play a lot of zone against the Heels. Hampton ran a straight 2-3 while Davidson ran the 1-3-1 with a baseline chaser. Both styles were effective in containing Kris Lang’s post moves and Capel’s penetration. Once other players will penetrate and dish, Lang and Capel will get better looks. Perhaps the Lang/Bersticker combo would open at least one of Lang/Bersticker/Capel against a zone.

Limit Playing Time

The Heels have spread themselves too thin. During the second half of the Davidson game we saw play predominately from Lang, Capel, Scott, Manuel, Boone, Will Johnson, and Bersticker. Once Doherty starts sitting 2-3 people down for long periods of time, we’ll see the offensive continuity drastically improve.

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Outlook

This is by no means a horrible team, but it will not win 20 games this season. This is a short regular season as only 27 games have been scheduled. So, it is unlikely that the Heels will lose only 5 games before March. Incidentally, why is this such a short season? The average season in the past 5 has had 29 games. This team could certainly use 2 more “lesser” opponents.

This team will win around 14 games. However, not many 14-win teams have ever made the NCAA tournament, nor have they placed in the top 3 of the ACC.

What this team and its fans need to do is forget streaks or anything having to do with the “long run” and just play each game. Improvement on offense will come, but it would be nice if it could occur sooner than later. And for now…lay off the coach!