What’s Really Going On…

The recent Tar Heel skid has people everywhere in arms. The Heels took it on the chin against (a now 7-20) Clemson and Virginia, a giant killer which has a real possibility of getting to the Final 8 next month.

There are two problems at work here. UNC has traditionally sagged in the third week of February. I distinctly remember a story from this time in 1991. The JV team practices after the Varsity team is finished, and has to wait in the vomitory, out of sight, until their time is up. Sometimes they got to start on time. Other times they didn’t. After one particularly long varsity workout, one of the JV players overheard the exiting Pete Chilcutt say,”MAN, I’m sick of this $@&!.” That team sagged as well, but really got tuned up the next week as the won the ACC Championship en route to a Final Four appearance, the first in 9 years for the Heels. It is pretty easy to imagine that it is happening again. After a boring week of just practicing two weeks ago, the Heels have played some games fairly close together, and seem really anxious to just get on with playing the Duke game.

Out of that temporary boredom comes the game in Chalottesville. In the last couple of weeks we have seen the deterioration of what game Ronald Curry had (just why do the Virginia fans insist that they wanted him, anyway?), and the deterioration of Kris Lang’s game. Most importantly, however, we have seen a) the team rely too heavily on Forte to take the shots or b) Forte becoming the biggest ball-hog in the ACC. My vote is with the latter. While I want to see Forte win every award available, I was dismayed to see most of UNC’s possessions follow the pass, pass, forced Forte shot route yesterday. Forte attempted a whopping 27 of Carolina’s 64 shots (42% ). This is the time when we’ll see what Doherty is made of . He has a star on his hands, for sure, but if he is either pushing the team to get it to Forte or isn’t controlling Forte’s shot selection, it is time for Matt to pull back on those reins and make the Heels a tougher team to defend.

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UNC also is doing a quite unremarkable job of pressuring the ball on the perimeter. This team needs to force turnovers more frequently and get easier baskets out of it. Lying back in a zone and allowing the other team to complete 7 passes ultimately sets UNC up for a big fall against a hot team. We saw this yesterday.

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UNC faces an immensely disappointing N.C. State team Wednesday which has nothing to lose. Look for Kenny Inge to be obnoxiously physical in his last attempt to prove his “toughness” against true big men. NCSU’s only hope to win the game is to shoot well from behind the arc. So, Ronald Curry, force the little runt, Miller, to penetrate, not shoot the “3″. Forte, make Grundy penetrate, too. All they will do is pass it to a big-man pretender who is guarded by the real deal.

My Goodness! Are the Heels ever on a run? Since the 17-point December 2 loss to Kentucky the Heels have run off 18 straight wins against increasingly tough competition. The Heels, with just 5 games remaining before the ACC Tournament, will be a strong favorite in at least four of those contests.

The question last week after the Duke win concerned how the Heels will handle being #1 with their new coach. They faced a tough schedule with three games in seven days, two against top 20 talent. After those seven days, though, the Heels look like a strong Final Four contender. They hung losses on Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, and Maryland.

The most impressive statistic thus far has to be that no ACC team has shot better than 43% against the Heels this season. Coupling that stat with a decreasing number of turnovers forced (on opponents), Matt Doherty’s strategy is apparent: force the opponent to take bad shots instead of gambling on perimeter steals. The inverse has been true with UNC’s opponents. They see the Heels’ weakness being shaky perimeter ballhandling. So, they overplay passing lanes and gamble on steals. Thus far UNC has been able to exploit this overplay quite well en route to several key victories.

The most impressive quality about UNC this season is their ability to score in so many ways. The frontcourt play of Haywood, Lang, and Peppers is obvious. What really makes this team tough, though, is the way it can hit from the perimeter, penetrate, and hit the mid-range shot. The weakest shot for UNC is the three-pointer, and it shoots 39% from beyond the arc. With so many scoring options available, the Heels will be an extremely slippery team for foes in the NCAA tournament.

While UNC looks like a strong March contender, there are a couple of concerns. One is the recent inability to force turnovers. While it is good to force opponents into poor shots, we all know that mid-court steals usually lead to easy baskets. It is always easier to score before the defense sets up. Before the Duke game, no team had kept its turnovers rate below 10%. In the last four games, however, three teams have been able to do so. If the Heels want to really flex some muscle, they should force some turnovers and get some easy transition baskets.

The biggest concern for this team is the health of Kris Lang. There probably isn’t a single player in the ACC who has improved more since last season than Lang. As we all remember, Kris had numerous health problems last season and was lethargic at best. After a fantastic 2.5 months of play he has a torn tendon in his right ankle. It is an injury which is best healed with time and rest. Luckily the Heels have the week off, and the next two foes are Clemson and Florida State.

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Hats off to Matt Doherty. If you look back at my article Time For Gut To Go from last season, you’ll see that I was upset that the team didn’t want to play defense and an offense that didn’t move well without the ball. This season we see fire. We see motivation. We see a team that is excited to play. While it’s certainly possible that this team may miss the Final Four, we are all having a lot more fun this season.