Certainly there has been much talk about “what’s wrong with the Heels” since well before Christmas. However not until the loss to UCLA did the talks really intensify. Everyone from Haywood to Guthridge to Cota to injuries have been discussed. In these discussions, several myths about this team have surfaced.

MYTH #1: The Heels are inexperienced.
UNC’s top 6 players are Freshman, Sophomore, Sophomore, Junior, Junior, and Senior. Add in a walk-on Freshman (Peppers) and a Senior (Newby), and you get plenty of experience, especially in the NBA-ravaged ACC. If you look around the league, you won’t find more experience anywhere (except for NCSU), especially with league leader Duke.

MYTH #2: The Heels lack talent
Certainly the Heels have been hit by the injury bug this season, however after factoring in injuries, UNC has the second-most pure talent in the league. One way of measuring top tier talent is to count former McDonald’s All-Americans of which UNC has 5 which are healthy (not including the injured Ronald Curry). Only Duke (with 6) has nearly as many or more. However teams are clearly not based just on their “star” players. Another key ingredient is good players in the middle of the pack. If we look at where recruiting expert Brick Oettinger’s Top-100 high school players over the last four years ended up, we get some interesting results (number indicates how many of these distinct players appear on current rosters):

• Duke 8
• North Carolina 7 (9)
• N.C. State 7
• Wake Forest 7
• Virginia 5
• Maryland 4
• Georgia Tech 4
• Clemson 2
• Florida State 1

UNC actually has 9, but Brian Bersticker and Ron Curry are injured, and cannot be considered here. Have you looked at the ACC standings lately? You’ll find a strong correlation here. (Don’t forget that Duke just lost 5 of them last Spring).

The message is clear: The Heels have enough talent to be winning big, and simply aren’t. I think it is a matter of coaching. Whether it is strategy, discipline, motivation, or preparation, Bill Guthridge in his third year at the helm, is proving that he is not able to keep a talent-filled ship headed straight.

Not only are the numbers not adding up, but we are seeing an erosion of many fundamental elements of Smith’s philosophy. Basic principles taught by Smith included limited dribbling in the halfcourt, fluid movement without the ball, hard-nosed man-to-man defense with much pressure at the point of the ball, the high/low post exchange, and execution of the secondary break. From what I have seen, we have undergone a three year process of forgetting every single one of those principles. Rarely do we see Lang or Haywood or Peppers swapping high and low post positions. We see way too much dribbling in the half court game by Ed Cota and we see a total disinterest in defense by Cota. Most importantly, though, we commonly see the #2, #3, #4, and #5 guys not moving for 10 seconds at a time without the ball. Hence the marked increase in turnovers. Case in point: UNC’s % Loss of Ball stats have been:

• 1996 16.5%
• 1997 17.0
• 1998 15.9
• 1999 19.6
• 2000 18.6*

* Note: This stat is thru 18 games. This stat average always rises in the ACC regular season.

Do you see the trend here? Jeff McInnis was not UNC’s greatest point guard ever, however his quite young ‘96 team took care of the ball far better than the young teams of the past two seasons led by Ed Cota. Let’s look at the opponents’ loss of ball averages (a good measure of defensive prowess):

• 1996: 14.0 (+2.5)%
• 1997: 16.7 (+0.3)
• 1998: 15.9 ( 0.0)
• 1999: 14.0 (-5.6)
• 2000: 14.5 (-4.1)

The numbers in parenthesis indicate the %LOB differential. So, since Bill Guthridge took over at the beginning of the 1998 season, we have seen a massive decline in defensive pressure. Does this include teaching or motivation? BOTH. Motivated teams really get after the ball, as Duke, UVA, and NCSU have shown this season. Also keep in mind that this slide has occurred in an ever-slipping ACC conference. In fact, only about 52 of Brick Oettinger’s top 400 players of the past four years have gone to the ACC. Had the ACC stayed as talented as it was in 1990, the slide would have been more intense.

UNC will have a winning ACC league record, get its 20 wins, and get a berth in the NCAA tournament this season, which is fantastic. On the other hand there is a very serious, fundamental trend here which I hardly see improving next season (with either a stale Ron Curry or a freshman at point guard). I may be overly pragmatic in saying that is time for Guthridge to move on and let Roy Williams take the helm before he is too old to really make a mark.

After a nice win on great shooting Saturday night against NCSU, the Heels entered the LJVM in Winston-Salem to face an underachieving Wake Forest team. With Nike Arinze back, the Deacs looked like a shoe-in for an NCAA tournament bid. However losses to no-named, but ranked, teams like Oregon, Georgia, Villanova have really killed the team’s morale.

The key to beating Wake Forest this year is no different than in the past 2 years; contain Robert O’Kelley, on which the Heels did a pitiful job. This duty rested mainly on Ed Cota, who has quickly become one of the most one-dimensional players in the ACC. His zeal for assists has completely clouded his ability to score, drive the lane, and most importantly, play defense. Does anyone remember the last charge drawn by Cota? He is nowhere in sight in the “ACC Steals Leaders” list, and constantly ends games with only one or two fouls. In last night’s game, against the 12th best scorer in the conference, Cota had 2 fouls. O’Kelley scored 3 more points than his average.

Here are some facts about the UNC/Wake game:

• UNC scored 0.70 points per possession, the worst showing since the 8-point loss to Arizona in 1997 (Although AZ went on to win the national championship, they played a horrible game against the Heels and stole a win).
• UNC shot 18-41 (44%) from inside the arc, 12 percentage points less than normal. With several shots falling short, it all comes down to lack of effort.
• UNC turned the ball over on 22% of its possessions. The assist to turnover ratio was 11/18 or .611. This simply says the team isn’t moving without the ball. Watching the tape of the game confirms this. Capel, Forte, Owens, and Cota are not moving on the perimeter without the ball. Forget the run & jump, where did the UNC passing game go? Why are the L & R wings standing in place for 10 seconds at a time? How hard is THAT to defend for Wake Forest?
• UNC is in danger of not winning 20 games this season. Only 9 are needed, however the season doesn’t get easier. In 14 remaining regular season games, the Heels will face at least 5 more teams in the top 25. Beating the non-ranked teams and losing to the ranked ones would yield 20-wins. However UNC didn’t get it done last night against the computer-ranked 41st team in the nation. UNC is 1-3 (.250) against ranked teams and 10-2 against non-ranked teams (.833). So, with the remaining schedule, unless there is a shake-up, it looks like UNC will be 1-4 against remaining ranked opponents and 7-2 against non-ranked teams for a final record of 19-11 before the ACC Tournament. It is clear that this is probably the most underachieving UNC team since Dean Smith became coach.

Next up is UCLA, an athletic team that UNC really must beat or it will be on the ropes. It is time for the UNC fans to show up on time for games and to make noise (THAT INCLUDES THE LAZY STUDENTS). This season is only a couple of losses away from panic time.