Tar Heel Chapter Ends with Surplus of Question Marks
April 2nd, 2012The Tar Heels finished the 2012 campaign with a Final 8 appearance, a mythical ACC Regular Season Championship, and a 32-6 record. It was a year that almost every school in America envies, yet this will go down as one of the big letdown seasons of UNC history. The current group of starters leaving stands as one of the least accomplished group of talented recruits in UNC lore.
UNC entered the season as the #1 team in America, and one that should have only been challenged for the title by Kentucky’s group of Freshmen. However there were cracks in the team from the start; the most important of all being outside shooting. Shooting was not a strength in that ‘11 group of Heels that missed the Final Four by a couple of possessions. The group, largely unchanged, entered the season with the same question marks.
Harrison Barnes took about half of his Freshman season to start feeling comfortable, and hit big shots when the team needed them in most games down the stretch. So I wasn’t as concerned about the 3 spot as I was with the 2 spot. Dexter Strickland shot 46% from the field and 25% from “3” in 2011. While he is arguably the best fast-break player in Carolina history, he is a terrible shooter. His form is bad, he doesn’t jump straight up, and his shot selection isn’t good. He is a good defender and gave the team quickness, however in order to be a top shelf kind of team, there has to be a good outside shooting threat at the 2 position.
I really like Strickland’s attitude, however it wasn’t a time of panic, obviously, when Strickland had a season-ending injury on January 19. This would give ample time for Reggie Bullock to become comfortable in close games and improve his defense. Bullock, unlike Strickland, is a quality shooter that could make defending the Heels a monumentally complex task. From the point of Strickland’s injury onward Bullock shot 42% from the field, and 38% from beyond the arc. (64% of Bullock’s shots were from “3”). This is shooting that would earn Bullock Top 3 honors in shooting in the conference.
As a whole, the Heels were an excellent offensive team, however the most underwritten story about this group is that they were the best defensive team at UNC in the Roy Williams tenure. As outlined in another post, this team wasn’t flashy with their defense. They didn’t force turnovers very frequently, however they forced teams into taking very difficult shots. This is ultimately the goal on defense, and no other team in recently memory challenged as well as this one did.
The defensive skill was a good surprise. Unfortunately the bad surprise was an injury bug that no Tar Heel team in the last 3 decades has seen. A wrist injury in the first post-season game to John Henson forced him to miss several games, and upon return, he played tentatively in the interior on both ends of the floor.
More importantly, however, was the season-ending injury to Kendall Marshall in the R32 game against an unreasonably physical Creighton team. With Marshall’s backup (Strickland) out, the Heels were left to rely on a Freshman who had only totaled 137 minutes of playing time. This was too much to ask against good teams, and while the Heels played Kansas evenly for about 37 minutes, the team’s Achilles’ Heel from the start, outside shooting, wasn’t good enough against Kansas.
While most people understood the die that had been cast when Marshall went down, there was hope that this group could still get to its first (with the exception of Zeller) Final Four. What was difficult to watch was the play of Harrison Barnes down the stretch. Barnes, the nation’s 2009 Mr. Basketball coming out of high school, came in as the most heralded recruit in UNC history. Barnes was so highly regarded that he would have been a lottery pick by the NBA straight out of high school if direct entry were allowed. Barnes picked UNC because of his desire to get a Business degree, and keenly spoke recently about NBA players needing to be mindful of their “brand” as marketable products.
While players have bad games, and even bad stretches, it is extremely disappointing that this caliber of recruit play so ordinarily for more than half of his career at UNC. Nobody will argue that Barnes had a very slow start last season, however people may not realize just how poorly Barnes played since February 1. Before that date Barnes shot 49% (FG) and 45% (FG3). Since that point Barnes shot 39% (FG) and 28% (FG3).
Barnes was a player in this period that had no first step and absolutely no elevation. This led to overcompensated or underpowered shots. Without Marshall on the floor, Barnes forced shots and made repeated bad decisions with the ball.
What happened around February 1 that was so important to Barnes’ game? Barnes rolled an ankle at Wake Forest. While he and the program said Barnes was 100%, it was obvious he was not.
So, UNC returned all of its starting five from a team that missed the Final Four by a hair last season, however when it came test time for this team, Zeller was the only one of them standing. For UNC to repeat its accomplishments with so many injuries is an impressive feat.
However Tar Heel fans will always wonder what would have happened… With a fully healthy squad, would the Heels have had the outside shooting they needed to win it all? Without Strickland, would the Heels have done it? How about with a healthy Marshall? Could the Heels overcome Kansas or even a well-oiled Kentucky team? It’s hard to confidently say “Yes”. This squad was only 8-5 vs. the Top 50. Despite being the Vegas’ favorite, this squad might not have gotten it done anyway in the single-elimination tournament. Better, healthier UNC teams have certainly stumbled along the way.
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I completely agree with Coach Smith that players aren’t different than any other student in that they approach college with job placement in mind. If the NBA wants to hire a player before their maximum time allotted to play has expired, then the player would be foolish to not take the opportunity. A financial planner I know sat down and figured that in order for a 50 year-old to be financially independent and live a nice lifestyle in Raleigh, they need to have at least $6 million invested to spin off enough passive income to pay bills and have realistic, enjoyable experiences. The top 5 picks in the lottery will get that amount, guaranteed, in their first two years of play. The Top 23 draft picks will get at least halfway there in just 3 years.
So, it is tough to blame Marshall, Henson, and Barnes for joining Zeller in the NBA Draft this season, but damn! That’s a lot to lose, isn’t it?
If these players leave (they all are currently eligible to return) they definitely were more hungry for money than they were for championships. I don’t blame them for that given how hard it is for the typical American to get up and go to work for more than 11,000 days of their lives. However, just be honest and don’t tell us you are “coming back to win a championship”. If you are serious about winning it as an 18 year old, you can’t be much less serious as a 19 year old.
Zeller won a championship in 2009 with another group and has no option but to leave. However this great cluster of Barnes, Marshall, and Henson is choosing to walk away with their accomplishments as the final story in their chapter in Tar Heel history.
Just what did this group accomplish? They finished First in the ACC Regular Season in both seasons. This allowed them to get an advantage in the ACC Tournament by virtue of a better seeding. In the NCAA Tournament both teams were able to reach the Final 8 and were a handful of possessions away from getting to the Final Four, but so was Cincinnati in 1993, right? The reason for missing the Final Four is irrelevant. This group will forever be evaluated by their post-season accomplishments.
So that’s it. The group won a lot of regular season games and got the furthest of any ACC team in the NCAA Tournament both years, however in UNC Basketball history, these are fairly ordinary accomplishments.
While there have been up and down years, every cluster of recruits since the Wolf/Popson/Smith era 25 years ago has made a Final Four trip or been ACC Champions.
If we look at the greatest UNC teams to not win it all, this team doesn’t even scratch the Top 10. Here are the best since 1980 of that crowd:
- 1984 – Four future NBA All-Stars: Jordan, Perkins, Smith, Daugherty
- 1995 – Wallace, Stackhouse, Williams, McInnis.
- 1998 – Carter, Jamison, Haywood.
- 1994 – Montross, Stackhouse, Wallace, McInnis
- 2008 – Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington
- 1997 – Carter, Jamison, Williams.
- 2007. Hansbrough, Lawson, Ellington
- 1987 – Reid, Williams, Fox, Chilcutt.
- 1986 – Reid, Smith, Chilcutt, Williams, Wolf
- 1989 – Reid, Fox, Chilcutt
- 2012 – Zeller, Barnes, Marshall, Henson, McAdoo
That is some pretty tough company for sure and outside of Duke, this group would be one of the five All-Time greatest teams at any other ACC program.
Now, the history book isn’t written on what types of pros these guys will be. Ed Cota was an incredible passer. Dante Calabria was a phenomenal shooter. Donald Williams carried the Heels to a championship. However players like Scott Williams, Pete Chilcutt, Rick Fox, and Brendan Haywood are the ones who got to play in the pros for many years.
We’ll have to wait and see how this group fares in the NBA to really know how much substance was really there…or could it be that this group may have been overhyped given the names on their jerseys…or was it the 4 key injuries to the group’s Starting Five…?